Germany’s Trade Surplus Shrinks Amid Surging Imports in 2025
Explore how Germany’s trade surplus hit an 11-month low in September 2025 as imports surged past exports, revealing shifting trade patterns and economic resilience in a complex global landscape.
Key Takeaways
- Germany’s trade surplus fell to €15.3 billion in September 2025, an 11-month low.
- Imports surged 3.1% month-on-month, outpacing modest export growth of 1.4%.
- Non-EU imports, especially from China, the US, and the UK, drove the import rise.
- Exports to the US rebounded but remain below 2024 levels due to tariffs.
- Domestic demand remains strong, signaling resilience despite global trade headwinds.
Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse, saw its trade surplus narrow to €15.3 billion in September 2025—the lowest since October 2024. This dip came as imports surged 3.1% month-on-month, outstripping a modest 1.4% rise in exports. The Federal Statistical Office’s data reveal a complex dance: while exports showed signs of life, imports, fueled by strong domestic demand, raced ahead.
Digging deeper, imports from non-EU countries like China, the US, and the UK jumped significantly, highlighting shifting trade dynamics. Meanwhile, exports to the US bounced back after months of decline but still lag behind last year’s figures, weighed down by lingering tariffs.
This article unpacks the September 2025 trade figures, exploring what’s behind the shrinking surplus, the role of key trading partners, and what it means for Germany’s export-driven economy in a world of evolving challenges.
Tracking Germany’s Trade Surplus
September 2025 marked a notable shift for Germany’s trade surplus, dropping to €15.3 billion—the lowest in nearly a year. This wasn’t just a blip; it reflected a steady decline from €18.0 billion a year earlier and €16.9 billion in August. The surprise? Economists expected the surplus to hold steady at €16.9 billion, but imports outpaced exports instead.
Exports nudged up 1.4% month-on-month to €131.1 billion, showing a modest recovery. Yet imports jumped 3.1% to €115.9 billion, signaling that Germany’s appetite for foreign goods is growing faster than its sales abroad. This imbalance nudged the surplus downward, revealing a subtle but important shift in trade dynamics.
Think of it like a shopkeeper whose sales are rising slowly, but whose restocking costs are climbing faster. The result? Less profit margin. For Germany, this means the traditional export-driven growth engine is sputtering, even as the domestic market flexes its muscles.
Unpacking the Import Surge
What’s fueling this import boom? The data point to non-EU countries as the main culprits. Imports from China, Germany’s largest supplier, jumped 6.1% month-over-month to €14.6 billion. The US wasn’t far behind, with imports soaring 9.0% to €8.7 billion. And the UK saw a striking 20% surge to €3.6 billion.
This surge tells a story beyond numbers. It reveals a German economy that’s hungry for foreign goods—whether consumer products or intermediate goods for manufacturing. Domestic demand is holding strong, even as global demand for German exports remains patchy.
It’s a reminder that imports aren’t just costs; they’re often investments in production and consumption. But when imports grow faster than exports, it tightens the trade balance, nudging the surplus down. For Germany, this means the internal market is a bright spot amid global uncertainties.
Navigating Export Challenges
Exports tell a more nuanced tale. While overall exports rose 2.0% year-on-year in September, the rebound isn’t uniform. Exports to the US climbed 11.9% month-on-month to €12.2 billion, breaking a five-month slump. Yet, they remain 7.4% below September 2024 levels, a lingering shadow cast by Trump-era tariffs.
Exports to the UK also showed strength, up 7.1% to €7.0 billion. But shipments to China fell 2.2% to €6.7 billion, still 11.9% below last year’s figures. This decline highlights deeper structural shifts in Germany’s trade landscape, with China’s share of exports dropping sharply from nearly 8% pre-pandemic to 5% now.
Carsten Brzeski of ING points out that despite the uptick, export volumes remain below pre-'Liberation Day' levels and well under March 2025 figures. The export engine is sputtering, challenged by tariffs and shifting global demand. It’s a wake-up call that old export myths need revisiting.
The Role of EU Trade Dynamics
Germany’s trade surplus still leans heavily on intra-EU commerce. Exports to EU member states rose 2.5% to €74.3 billion in September, while imports from the bloc increased by a smaller 1.2% to €59.3 billion. Within the eurozone, exports grew 1.4%, and imports actually declined 0.7%, giving the surplus a boost.
Non-eurozone EU members showed even stronger momentum, with exports jumping 5.1% and imports rising 4.9%. This intra-European trade acts as a stabilizing force amid global uncertainties.
It’s like having a reliable friend in a turbulent crowd. While trade with the US and China faces headwinds, the EU remains a sturdy pillar supporting Germany’s trade balance. Yet, even this pillar shows signs of strain as import growth nudges upward.
Looking Ahead: Trade Balance Trends
The narrowing trade surplus signals a turning point. Forecasts suggest the surplus may moderate further, potentially falling to around €12 billion in 2026 and €14 billion in 2027 if current trends persist. This reflects a balancing act between resilient domestic demand and export challenges.
The persistent US tariffs loom large, with their full impact expected to unfold in coming months. German exporters face the tough task of regaining lost ground in key markets while managing rising import costs.
The story unfolding is one of transformation. Germany’s export-driven growth model is adapting to a world where domestic consumption plays a bigger role, and global trade patterns are shifting. For businesses and policymakers, this means embracing change with imagination and strategic foresight.
Long Story Short
Germany’s shrinking trade surplus in September 2025 paints a vivid picture of an economy at a crossroads. Imports are surging, propelled by resilient domestic demand and shifting global supply chains, while exports face headwinds from tariffs and changing market shares. The traditional export engine, once roaring, now hums with caution. For businesses and policymakers, this signals a need to rethink strategies—balancing the strength of internal consumption with the realities of tougher export markets. The resilience of Germany’s domestic economy offers a silver lining, but the path ahead demands creativity and adaptability. As the trade surplus trends downward, the coming months will test Germany’s ability to navigate tariff impacts and global uncertainties. The story unfolding is one of transformation, where old myths of unstoppable export dominance meet the new reality of a more balanced, yet challenging, trade landscape.