Ivory Coast Cocoa Grind Plummets 31.2% in July 2025
Exploring the sharp 31.2% drop in Ivory Coast's cocoa grind in July 2025, this article unpacks causes, market impacts, and what this means for the global cocoa industry’s future.
Key Takeaways
- Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind fell 31.2% year-on-year in July 2025.
- Poor bean quality and low mid-crop volumes drove the decline.
- Excessive rainfall and brown rot disease hurt cocoa yields and quality.
- Processors face feedstock shortages, operating below capacity.
- Global cocoa prices reacted sharply to supply uncertainties.
Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, experienced a dramatic 31.2% drop in cocoa grinding during July 2025, signaling serious disruptions in its domestic processing industry. Grinding—the transformation of raw beans into chocolate ingredients—fell to 39,301 metric tons, a steep decline compared to last year. This plunge reflects not just lower volumes but also deteriorating bean quality, especially from the mid-crop harvest. With only 30% of beans typically processed locally, the drop threatens both Ivory Coast’s value-added exports and global cocoa supply chains. This article dives into the causes behind the slump, the economic ripple effects, and what lies ahead for this vital sector.
Unpacking the Cocoa Grind Drop
Imagine a bustling factory suddenly slowing to a crawl—that’s what happened in Ivory Coast’s cocoa grinding sector in July 2025. Grinding volumes plummeted 31.2% year-on-year, dropping to just 39,301 metric tons. This isn’t just a blip; it’s a sharp contraction signaling deeper issues. The mid-crop harvest, usually a reliable supply source between April and September, delivered fewer beans and poorer quality. Grinders reported rejecting large quantities due to low fat content and high acidity, making the beans unsuitable for chocolate production. The total grind from October 2024 to July 2025 fell 4% compared to the previous season, underscoring a sustained challenge rather than a one-month anomaly.
This decline is significant because Ivory Coast processes about 30% of its cocoa domestically, turning raw beans into valuable products like cocoa liquor and butter. When grinding slows, it’s a red flag for the health of the entire value chain—from farmers to global chocolate makers. The drop also reflects a supply crunch: between April and mid-August 2025, cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast’s main ports fell 30% compared to last year. This shortage forced grinders to exhaust their stocks and brace for a tough rebuilding phase ahead.
Weather’s Bitter Impact
Mother Nature dealt a harsh hand to Ivory Coast’s cocoa crop in 2025. Excessive rainfall in late 2024 created a perfect storm for brown rot, a fungal disease that ravages cocoa pods and slashes bean quality. This fungal foe, Phytophthora megakarya, particularly hit the western and southwestern regions—Ivory Coast’s cocoa heartland—stunting yields and leaving processors with subpar beans.
But the weather woes didn’t stop there. The arrival of the dry Harmattan winds and inconsistent rainfall since December 2024 further stressed the crop, compromising bean development and suitability for grinding. The mid-crop harvest, already smaller by 9% compared to the previous year, suffered from these conditions, leading to rejection rates of 5-6%—a stark contrast to the 1% rejection typical for the main crop. These climatic challenges reveal how fragile cocoa production can be, with quality as vulnerable as quantity.
Supply Chain Strains Revealed
Behind the scenes, Ivory Coast’s cocoa supply chain faced its own hurdles. Heavy rains disrupted transportation and harvest schedules, making it harder for processors to secure timely deliveries of quality beans. Grinders reported running out of stock, a rare but telling sign of supply stress. Without sufficient beans, factories can’t run at full throttle, leaving expensive equipment idle and workers underutilized.
Adding complexity, exporters flagged potential inaccuracies in export data, including double-counting or overweighing at ports. This muddles the true picture of bean availability and complicates planning for processors and buyers. The grinding companies—industry giants like Barry Callebaut, Olam, and Cargill—now face the challenge of aggressively purchasing from the October main crop to rebuild stocks and return to normal grinding levels of just over 58,000 tons per month. The supply chain’s fragility underscores the need for better infrastructure and data transparency.
Economic Ripples and Market Moves
Ivory Coast’s grinding slowdown isn’t just a local headache—it sends shockwaves through the global cocoa market. As the world’s largest cocoa producer, supplying roughly 40% of global beans, any disruption here affects chocolate makers worldwide. The drop in domestic processing means less value-added export revenue, shifting dependence back to raw bean shipments, which fetch lower prices.
Market reactions have been volatile. In June 2025, cocoa futures swung wildly—an 8% rise followed by a 16-18% plunge—as traders grappled with shifting supply forecasts. Meanwhile, investments in new processing plants with 50,000 metric tons annual capacity risk underutilization if feedstock shortages persist. The grinding sector’s struggles highlight how intertwined agricultural health, industrial capacity, and global commodity markets truly are.
Charting the Path Forward
Looking ahead, Ivory Coast’s cocoa sector stands at a crossroads. The main harvest starting in October offers hope for replenishing stocks and returning grinding to normal levels. However, this will require aggressive purchasing strategies and improved crop quality to avoid repeating the mid-crop’s pitfalls. Investments in disease management, agricultural extension, and infrastructure upgrades are vital to build resilience against weather shocks and supply chain disruptions.
While national cocoa production is projected to grow moderately—potentially reaching 2.6 million metric tons by 2026—the grinding sector’s ability to capitalize on this depends on overcoming quality and logistical challenges. For farmers, processors, and policymakers, the message is clear: boosting volume alone won’t suffice without ensuring the beans meet the standards that keep the chocolate industry humming. The coming months will test Ivory Coast’s capacity to stabilize its cocoa grind and secure its place atop the global cocoa throne.
Long Story Short
The 31.2% plunge in Ivory Coast’s cocoa grind for July 2025 is more than a statistic—it’s a wake-up call for the global cocoa market. Poor bean quality, driven by adverse weather and disease, combined with logistical hurdles, has left grinders scrambling for supply and operating well below capacity. This squeeze on domestic processing shifts reliance back to raw exports, limiting Ivory Coast’s share of the lucrative chocolate ingredient market. For farmers, processors, and global buyers alike, the message is clear: quality and resilience must be prioritized alongside volume. As October’s main harvest approaches, aggressive purchasing and strategic investments in crop health and infrastructure will be crucial. The road ahead demands coordinated efforts to restore stability and unlock the sector’s full potential, ensuring that the world’s chocolate cravings don’t go unmet.