Nvidia Earnings and Anthropic IPO Put the AI Trade to the Test
Navigate a week where Nvidia's first post-Huang earnings, Anthropic's Nasdaq debut and Meta's giant stock sale test the AI trade, while the Fed and retailers keep the consumer firmly in focus.
Key Takeaways
- Nvidia reports Tuesday after the close, and Anthropic is expected to begin trading Thursday, so the AI trade gets two exams in three days.
- Last week's rally was broad: the S&P 500 rose 2.51%, the Nasdaq Composite 2.27% and the Dow 2.07%.
- Nvidia's first report since Jensen Huang stepped down is as much about leadership as about chips.
- Meta's plan to raise up to $95 billion in stock sales shows what keeping pace in AI costs.
- Walmart, Home Depot, Target and Lowe's will show whether higher prices and borrowing costs are biting shoppers.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Monday, and the October minutes land Wednesday, with a December rate hike on traders' minds.
Two events, one very watchful market. Nvidia reports earnings Tuesday after the close, and Anthropic is expected to begin trading Thursday.
Weeks of worry about what data centers cost, and what that spending returns, hang over both. Still, last week ended on a high note, with the S&P 500 up 2.51%.
Nvidia reports without Jensen Huang at the helm, which adds a human question mark to a numbers story. Anthropic, meanwhile, is one of the most anticipated listings of the AI era. Let's get started.
Testing the AI Trade
Think of the AI trade as a dinner party where everyone adores the host and nobody wants to see the bill. This week the check arrives in two courses: Nvidia's earnings Tuesday after the close, then Anthropic's expected first trades on Thursday.
The mood going in is better than the worry suggests. The S&P 500 gained 2.51% last week, the Nasdaq Composite 2.27% and the Dow 2.07%. Tokyo caught the same wind, with the Nikkei surging 6.5% as a rebound in the US semiconductor index lifted sentiment.
Yet a rally is not a verdict. Investors have spent weeks fretting over what data centers cost and what that spending returns, and neither event settles the question alone. Together, they hand the market a fresh chance to reassess.
Watching Nvidia's First Post-Huang Report
Nvidia is stepping onto the stage without its usual frontman. Jensen Huang has stepped down as CEO, so Tuesday's call is the first under interim chief Colette Kress. Investors want proof that demand stays strong and that the machine runs smoothly without him.
The bar is high. Analysts expect revenue of $108.8 billion, up from the $96.2 billion reported for the second quarter. The shares fell about 13% over the past week, yet the weekend close sat roughly 9% above the recent low.
Even so, a glowing report does not guarantee applause. One strategist at a Japanese brokerage doubted that a stronger-than-expected result brings a straightforward positive reaction, and many peers share that caution. Worries about the company's creditworthiness have eased, but uncertainty over management's direction and the lack of a named successor lingers.
Gauging Anthropic's Market Debut
Anthropic, the developer of the Claude AI models, is about to learn what the public thinks of it. The company filed a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and plans to list its Class A shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT.
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering, and the share count and price range were not set at the time of filing. Reports say underwriters are considering raising the preliminary price range, and selling to raise cash ahead of the IPO appears to have run its course.
Here is the fork in the road. If shares hold firm after listing and Nvidia delivers, market participants expect broad buying across AI names. A bipolar outcome, with funds rotating into non-AI stocks, is also on the table, and disappointment-driven selling remains a live risk.
Funding the AI Trade
Building the future is expensive, and Meta just showed the receipt. The company plans to raise up to $95 billion through stock sales to fund AI infrastructure, its first new stock issue since 2013.
Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom together expressed interest in buying some of the shares, though Meta did not confirm any signed purchase agreements. The interest shows how tightly Nvidia's fortunes are tied to its biggest customers. Meta's 2026 capital spending forecast now sits between $135 billion and $145 billion, much of it flowing into data centers built with Nvidia's processors.
Not everyone is cheering. Elon Musk warned that debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for AI-dependent companies, and neocloud shares including CoreWeave, Nebius and Iren fell in early trading after his comments. CoreWeave's strong earnings, though, show the picture is mixed.
Tracking the Fed and Consumers
While AI hogs the spotlight, the everyday shopper quietly votes with a wallet. Home Depot, Walmart, Target and Lowe's all report, and investors are hunting for signs that higher energy prices and borrowing costs are biting.
Walmart is expected to post earnings of $0.63 per share on revenue of $187.2 billion, a fresh read on how shoppers handle higher prices. Retail sales are forecast to rise 0.2% month on month, a cooler pace than the prior 0.8%.
Then there is the Fed. October inflation data lifted expectations for a December rate hike, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Monday, and the October meeting minutes land Wednesday. Traders will parse every word for clues on inflation.
Long Story Short
Strip away the noise and this week asks one question: does the market still believe in the AI story, or only in its headlines? Nvidia's report and Anthropic's first trades are the clearest answers on offer. For investors, the practical move is to watch behavior, not slogans. Pay attention to how Nvidia's shares react to its results, how Anthropic holds up after listing, and whether money spreads across AI names or drifts toward non-AI ones. The consumer and the Fed supply the backdrop. Retail earnings, Warsh's remarks and the October minutes will shape how comfortable investors feel taking risk. Expect a nervous stretch, but nervous is not the same as broken, and this week will sort the two. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.